GLASSNET’s impact on key stakeholders will make a difference in achieving the SDGs. Our network has the potential to provide decision makers from a wide-array of areas with the data needed to properly assess actions that will affect the environment, the economy and local communities.
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Dr. Cicero Zanetti de Lima
Cicero is a research economist at Observatory of Knowledge and Innovation in Bioeconomy at Getulio Vargas Foundation (Sao Paulo, Brazil), and external consultant at EMBRAPA Digital Agriculture. His research focus on agriculture and livestock intensification based on low-carbon technologies, land use, and climate change. The global-local-global approach is the mainstay of his research as local conditions determine the penetration of such technologies given economic restrictions at global and national levels. Cicero co-developed the SIMPLE-G-Brazil and an extension with pasture representation for Brazil. Also, he coupled a systematic sensitivity analysis in the SIMPLE framework to help SIMPLE users tracking uncertainties and conditions that shape the modeled scenarios.
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Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change
The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans' ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.
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AgMIP GlobalEcon Data Submission and Explorer Tools
The AgMIP Global Economics Team is an international network of researchers whose main objective is to undertake multi-model comparisons of critical issues affecting global agriculture—such as rising temperatures. The models vary greatly in their design, though all are able to produce a common set of indicators such as agricultural production, trade and prices. One challenge has been to pool the results using a standardized interface and to provide access to the ensemble of model results. Thus, new web-based tools have been developed, in collaboration with Purdue’s Research Computing. These tools have several useful features: a) a standardized interface for uploading model submissions with built-in diagnostic checking; b) ability to query the resulting database of merged results with download capability; and c) visualization of select results. The tools could potentially be used for similar multi-model exercises.
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Ensuring the long-term sustainability of our land and water resources, even as we seek to meet the world economy’s growing demands, requires informed management of the complex networks of policies, infrastructure, and technologies that connect the food and resource nexus. In addressing this challenge, a global perspective is required to determine the boundary conditions facing decision-makers as they seek to craft policies to ensure a sustainable economy and planet. The goals of the conference are: (i) to lead and to learn from other scholars, policymakers, and industry leaders engaged in the analysis of sustainability challenges at global, national, and local scales, and (ii) to identify current challenges in this space and (iii) contribute to the community-driven research agenda being developed under the auspices of the NSF-funded GLASSNET project can tackles these challenges using collaborative, interdisciplinary approaches that are responsive to stakeholder needs. A special issue of Environmental Research Letters has been commissioned to publish papers emerging from this conference.
The biannual meetings for GLASSNET take place in years 1, 3 and 5. The objective of this biannual meeting is to come to a consensus on GLASSNET’s prospective contributions over the course of this five-year project, and, more specifically, over the next two years (i.e., until the next biannual meeting, to be held in 2023). The first day of this meeting will focus on the themes growing out of our four summer workshops: (i) the science-policy interface, (ii) research challenges (in the context of specific use cases), (iii) data integration and interoperability, and (iv) cyberinfrastructure. In addition, we will be consider (v) how to evaluate the project’s impact on early career scholars and its success in promoting linkages across networks.
The cyberinfrastructure workshop took place on September 14, 2021. The goal of this workshop is to help flesh out the cyberinfrastructure section of our GLASSNET visioning paper being prepared in advance of our bi-annual meeting in October. This will build on the ideas and needs from the discussions of modeling and data integration working group during GLASSNET week and the subsequent workshops June-August. The key question to be discussed is what cyberinfrastructure is needed to enable data integration, exchange, and interoperability at the boundaries of the current GLASSNET networks, and develop human capital in and build the GLASSNET community.