Quantifying the uncertainties in estimating the heterogeneous effects of carbon taxes on labor, land, water, and fertilizer use in US agriculture

17 May 2023 | Contributor(s): Iman Haqiqi

Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Washington DC; July 23-25, 2023 Potential carbon taxes will have spatially heterogeneous impacts on agriculture. The magnitude of impacts depends on 1) the direct and...

GLASS Conference 2020 Program

28 Jan 2020 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel

Program description for "Managing the Global Commons: Sustainable agriculture and use of the world's land and water resources in the 21st Century" conference.

Magmatic Forcing of Cenozoic Climate?

13 Aug 2019 | Contributor(s): Pietro Sternai

This is the supporting models for the contribution "AGU Centennial Grand Challenge: Magmatic Forcing of Cenozoic Climate?" [Paper #2018JB016460R] submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth.

A review of global-local-global linkages in economic land-use/cover change models

04 May 2019 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Thales A P West, Jan Börner, Nelson Benjamin Villoria

Global change drivers of land-use/cover change (LUCC) like population dynamics, economic development, and climate change are increasingly important to local sustainability studies, and can only be properly analyzed at fine-scales that capture local biophysical and socio-economic conditions. When...

Managing Nitrate Leaching in the Corn Belt

08 Oct 2018 | Contributor(s): Christopher Kucharik, Laura C Bowling, Jing Liu

Video presentation on "Managing Nitrate Leaching in the Corn Belt" for the 2018 Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture, the National Press Club, Washington DC, September 17, 2018

Agricultural Productivity Growth for Long Run Sustainability

08 Oct 2018 | Contributor(s): Uris Lantz C Baldos

Video presentation on "Agricultural Productivity Growth for Long Run Sustainability" for the 2018 Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture, the National Press Club, Washington DC, September 17, 2018

Global Drivers of Land and Water Sustainability Stresses at Mid Century

08 Oct 2018 | Contributor(s): Laura C Bowling, Iman Haqiqi

Video presentation on "Global Drivers of Land and Water Sustainability Stresses at Mid Century" for the 2018 Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture, the National Press Club, Washington DC, September 17, 2018

Introduction Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture

08 Oct 2018 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel

Video presentation on introduction of the 2018 Conference on the Long Run Sustainability of US Agriculture, the National Press Club, Washington DC, September 17, 2018

Using spatially explicit data to improve our understanding of land supply responses: An application to the cropland effects of global sustainable irrigation in the Americas

09 Aug 2018 | Contributor(s): Nelson Benjamin Villoria, Jing Liu

Land supply elasticities determine the rates of land conversion in global policy models. However, they are only available for few countries in the world. Therefore, analysts seeking to improve the spatial resolution of their models are forced to impose regionally homogeneous parameters...

New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon

22 Nov 2017 | Contributor(s): Frances C. Moore, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Tom Hertel, Delavane Diaz

Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present...

Assessing the Inter-regional Incidence of Climate Impacts on Agriculture

19 Oct 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel

This is a presentation at IMPACTS WORLD 2017.

Managing the Global Commons: Sustainable Agriculture and Use of the World's Land and Water Resources in the 21st Century

19 Oct 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Laura C Bowling, Keith Cherkauer, Matthew Huber, David R Johnson, Carol Song, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

This is a presentation at IMPACTS WORLD 2017.

Assessing the Poverty Impacts of Climate Change across Latin America

19 Oct 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Monika Verma, Eduardo Magalhaes, Carlos Ludena, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Frances Moore

This is a poster presented at IMPACTS WORLD 2017, Germany.

Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use

27 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Jing Liu, Tom Hertel, Richard Lammers, Alexander A Prusevich, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Danielle Grogan, Steve Frolking

Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the...

Analyzing Water Scarcity in Global CGE Models

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Jing Liu, Tom Hertel, Farzad Taheripour

Incorporating water into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model operating at global scale can be extremely demanding due to the absence of standardized data, the sheer dimensions caused by intersecting river basins with countries, and difficulties to model demand for and supply of water....

Predicting Long Term Food Demand, Cropland Use and Prices

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

This paper seeks to survey, understand and reconcile the widely divergent estimates of long run global crop output, land use and price projections in the current literature. We begin by reviewing the history of such projections and the different models and assumptions used in these exercises. We...

Debunking the 'New Normal': Why World Food Prices are Expected to Resume their Long run Downward Trend

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Uris Lantz C Baldos, Tom Hertel

Contrary to the opinions expressed by many commentators, the recent episode of higher prices for agricultural commodities is likely a transitory phenomenon. When compared to the last half-century, population growth is expected to be much slower in the coming decades, with nearly all of the growth...

Attaining Food and Environmental Security in an Era of Globalization

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Uris Lantz C Baldos

Attaining the twin goals of food and environmental security in the coming decades poses a significant sustainability challenge. This paper examines the food and environmental security implications of a range of policies affecting the global food economy and terrestrial ecosystems, first in the...

Land Use in the 21st Century: Contributing to the Global Public Good

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel

This paper focuses on the evolution of global public goods related to the world’s land resources over the course of the 21st century, their potential impacts on the world’s poorest households, as well as prospects for policy interventions aimed at enhancing these outcomes. It begins...

The power and pain of market-based carbon policies: a global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock production

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Benjamin Henderson, Alla A Golub, Daniel Djauhari Pambudi, Tom Hertel, Cecile Godde, Mario Herrero, Oscar Cacho, Pierre J. Gerber

The objectives of this research are to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of carbon policies applied to the ruminant livestock sector [inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), and goats (Capra hircus)]— with...