New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon

22 Nov 2017 | Contributor(s): Frances C. Moore, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Tom Hertel, Delavane Diaz

Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present...

Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use

27 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Jing Liu, Tom Hertel, Richard Lammers, Alexander A Prusevich, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Danielle Grogan, Steve Frolking

Unsustainable water use challenges the capacity of water resources to ensure food security and continued growth of the economy. Adaptation policies targeting future water security can easily overlook its interaction with other sustainability metrics and unanticipated local responses to the...

Predicting Long Term Food Demand, Cropland Use and Prices

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

This paper seeks to survey, understand and reconcile the widely divergent estimates of long run global crop output, land use and price projections in the current literature. We begin by reviewing the history of such projections and the different models and assumptions used in these exercises. We...

Debunking the 'New Normal': Why World Food Prices are Expected to Resume their Long run Downward Trend

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Uris Lantz C Baldos, Tom Hertel

Contrary to the opinions expressed by many commentators, the recent episode of higher prices for agricultural commodities is likely a transitory phenomenon. When compared to the last half-century, population growth is expected to be much slower in the coming decades, with nearly all of the growth...

Attaining Food and Environmental Security in an Era of Globalization

08 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Tom Hertel, Uris Lantz C Baldos

Attaining the twin goals of food and environmental security in the coming decades poses a significant sustainability challenge. This paper examines the food and environmental security implications of a range of policies affecting the global food economy and terrestrial ecosystems, first in the...

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: A comparison of process-based and statistical yield models

07 Sep 2017 | Contributor(s): Frances C Moore, Uris Lantz C Baldos, Tom Hertel

A large number of studies have been published examining the implications of climate change for agricultural productivity that, broadly speaking, can be divided into process-based modeling and statistical approaches. Despite a general perception that results from these methods differ...